At the bottom of this article, you’ll find my quarterback tiers. Two of those tiers reflect a reality at the position: There’s a lot of difference between projections and rankings this year. The first place you see it is in Tier 2, where Kyler Murray and Anthony Richardson leap over Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and C.J. Stroud. The reason? Because the rushing upside for Murray and Richardson gives them the chance to win you a league. Burrow, Prescott, and Stroud may do that as well, but they may need to break some passing records along the way to do so.
The second tier that reflects this reality is Tier 4, where rookies Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams make a similar leap based on their upside. One thing that makes these leaps possible is that there is plenty of floor available at the quarterback position. Someone like Jared Goff or Brock Purdy may not have league-winning upside, but they can cover your floor if you already have an upside option.
Below you’ll find my QB draft strategy, sleepers breakouts and busts for the position, projections, tiers, and more. Let’s start with the strategy.
QB draft strategy
I am not letting a down year at the position influence my targeting of elite quarterbacks. While I don’t plan on being the first team to draft a QB, I am very interested in taking any of the Tier 1 QBs late in Round 3 or early in Round 4. I also know that a lot of you won’t get that choice, although QBs are going later than normal according to our ADP.
If I miss that elite tier then, based on the current ADP, there’s a decent chance I am waiting until the double-digit rounds and drafting multiple passers. The main exception to that rule is Kyler Murray. If I miss him I am pairing a safe veteran like Goff with an upside youngster like Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams.
In Superflex, it is difficult to be that selective. More often than not, I will select a QB in Round 1 in that format, as I believe that nine of the top 12 picks in that format should be QBs. But I am comfortable waiting a while on my second quarterback, especially if passing touchdowns are worth less than six points. How many quarterbacks I draft in that format is dependent on the quality of my starters. If I land two top-18 passers and a backup like Baker Mayfield with job security, I am fine with three quarterbacks. If my starters have more question marks, like the rookies or Russell Wilson, I will draft at least four QBs.
Now let’s take a look at the breakouts, sleepers, and busts. As a reminder, sleepers and busts are heavily influenced by ADP, and for this version, we’re using CBS ADP:
Sportsline
Sportsline
Sportsline
Numbers to know
- 26 — Russell Wilson threw 26 touchdown passes in 15 games last year. The Steelers as a team have thrown 25 TD passes in the past two seasons combined.
- 9.6 — Brock Purdy led the NFL with 9.6 yards per pass attempt. Expect some regression there, but also expect the 49ers to remain one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.
- 242 — Every QB to finish the top five the past two seasons has had at least 242 rushing yards. It’s getting harder and harder to dominate Fantasy Football as a pocket passer.
- 15 — Both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts had 15 rushing touchdowns last year. We wouldn’t bet on either repeating that.
- 26.3 — Anthony Richardson averaged 26.3 FPPG in the two games he started and finished last season.
- 6.5 — Patrick Mahomes’ 6.5 intended air yards per attempt in 2023 was a career low. With the addition of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy, expect more shots downfield.
- 28 — Greg Roman’s offenses have ranked 28th or lower in pass attempts in nine of his 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator, that’s bad news for Justin Herbert.
- 48 — Kick Cousins tore his Achilles 48 days after Aaron Rodgers did. It may be a little riskier to project a bounce back from Cousins.
Draft to stream
Jared Goff vs Rams, vs Buccaneers
Goff could be one of those guys who you draft as a streamer and he finished top 12. He was in this section last year and finished top 12. But it’s not quite that simple. Goff is a superstar at home, really good indoors, and has had some problems otherwise. Well, he opens the season with three of his four games at home and his only road game is at Arizona. That makes him the perfect late-round pick as a streamer and also my favorite quarterback to pair with Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams. You can start Goff for the first month while you get a look at the rookie.
Baker Mayfield vs Commanders, at Lions
Like Goff, Mayfield finished top-10 last year and isn’t being drafted anywhere near that high. In the first three weeks of the season, he faces what we expect to be bad defenses in Washington and Denver at home and his only road game should be a shootout at Detroit. I’m not quite as comfortable calling him a set-it-and-forget-it QB1 during that stretch, but he’s not far off.
Matthew Stafford at Lions, at Cardinals
So yeah, it’s a little weird that all three QBs either play for the Lions or play at the Lions the first three weeks of the season, and no it’s not just because I love revenge games, though I do. Including the playoffs, the Lions played 10 games at home last year and those games had an average total points scored of 51.8. You should be targeting streamers in this building all season. Well, not defenses.
Format matters
Better in leagues that reward four points per pass TD: Antony Richardson, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones.
Better in leagues that allow you to start more than one QB: Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Derek Carr
In season, you can find my projections on Sportsline, but for the preseason you can find them below as well as my tiers!
