No. 19 seed Madison Keys’ quest for her first Grand Slam title has taken her to the 2025 Australian Open semifinals, where she’ll face five-time Grand Slam champion, No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek. The American, Keys, is competing in her 46th major tournament, with a final appearance at the 2017 U.S. Open being her best finish. Meanwhile, Swiatek is a former World No. 1 but has yet to advance past the semis Down Under. The Australian Open 2025 will be the sixth meeting between Keys and Swiatek, with the latter owning the 4-1 edge.
The winner will then face the victor of Aryna Sabaleneka vs. Paula Badosa in the 2025 Australian Open women’s final. Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek will begin at 5 a.m. ET on Thursday from Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia. Swiatek is the -600 favorite (risk $600 to win $100) in the latest Keys vs. Swiatek odds, while Keys is the +400 underdog (risk $100 to win $400). The over/under for total games is 19.5, with Swiatek favored by 5.5 games. Before you make any Swiatek vs. Keys picks or 2025 Australian Open predictions, you need to see what tennis expert Jose Onorato has to say.
Onorato grew up playing competitive tennis in Caracas, Venezuela. After coming to the U.S., he trained with famed coach Nick Bollettieri at IMG Academy in Florida and faced players like Robert Farah, now one of the world’s top-ranked doubles players.
Onorato, who holds dual degrees in finance and economics from the University of Miami, does extensive research before placing any tennis bets. He studies current form, players’ tendencies on a particular surface, weather conditions and many other relevant factors. That systematic approach helped Onorato go 168-106-9 – up 107.12 units – since 2022. In the 2024 US Open, he included Jannik Sinner (+320) in his best bets. Anyone who has followed him at sportsbooks and on betting apps could be way up.
Now, Onorato has scrutinized the latest Australian Open 2025 odds and released his coveted betting picks and best bets for the Keys vs. Swiatek women’s semifinal match. He’s only sharing his picks and expert analysis at SportsLine.
Why Swiatek can cover
Swiatek has not dropped a single set during her Aussie run and has never truly been tested. She hasn’t lost more than two games in any set over her last four matches, while Keys has been pushed to the limit in three of her last four matches. Swiatek also entered the Australian Open 2025 with momentum as she advanced to the final in her last tournament, which also took place on an Australian hard court at the team event 2025 United Cup.
A five-time Grand Slam champion, Swiatek has proven herself in the later rounds of major tournaments, something that Keys has yet to do as the American has no Grand Slam wins, and just one final appearance, over her 16-year career. The Polish player also holds the head-to-head advantage, winning four of five matchups, including both battles in 2024. Swiatek has prevailed in straight sets in each of those four victories and was utterly dominant with a 6-1, 6-0 victory over Keys on another hard court at Indian Wells in 2022. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why Keys can cover
Keys enters Thursday’s match with plenty of confidence as she’s already knocked off a pair of top-10 seeded players in this tournament in No. 10 Danielle Collins and No. 6 Elena Rybakina. Then came the quarterfinal against No. 28 Elina Svitolina, in which Keys displayed her resolve by overcoming a lost first set. Though Keys has yet to win a Grand Slam, she is most comfortable on hard surfaces as four of her nine career singles titles have come on hard courts, which is more than any other surface.
Keys also won’t be intimidated by Swiatek’s resume or her No. 2 ranking, as the American’s lone victory over a World No. 1 came versus Swiatek in 2022. That was at another hard court at the Cincinnati Open, and Keys prevailed in straight sets. Add in that Keys just won the Adelaide International in Australia two weeks ago, and she has all of the tools is takes to not only steal a couple of games off Swiatek but to also advance to her first Australian Open final. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Swiatek vs. Keys picks
In addition to his full analysis, Onorato has released his best bets for this semifinal showdown. Be sure to see Onorato’s picks and analysis before locking in your 2025 Australian Open picks for Keys vs. Swiatek.
Who wins Swiatek vs. Keys in the women’s semifinals of the 2025 Australian Open, and what pick could lead to a huge return? Visit SportsLine now to see Jose Onorato’s best bets for Keys vs. Swiatek, all from the tennis expert who knows the game from a player’s perspective, and find out.
