No Jayson Tatum seemed to be no problem for the Boston Celtics in Game 5, as the Celtics had the most dominant win in the series, a 127-102 victory over the New York Knicks in Boston on Wednesday to keep their season alive. The New York Knicks (-2.5, 210.5) will attempt to close out the Boston Celtics again on Friday at 8 p.m. ET in Game 6 to advance to their first Eastern Conference Finals since 2000. Tatum tore his Achilles toward the end of Game 4, and many people counted the Celtics out following that injury, but the Celtics showcased their depth in Game 5 and that could be displayed again for Friday NBA player props. Derrick White had 34 points and Jaylen Brown had 26 points and 12 assists, so should you feature them in Friday NBA props? Players like White, Brown, Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns could also be popular pieces of NBA same-game parlays on betting apps.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. See more picks from Oh and the Inside the Lines team on Friday here.
Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 points (-128)
Holiday had 14 points over 33 minutes in Game 5 with Tatum out as he’ll be a more featured role in the offense for both scoring and creating without Boston’s Olympian on the court. Holiday has played at least 33 minutes in four of five games, so the workload wasn’t anything different, but his eight field-goal attempts were the second-most of the series and Oh expects that aggression to continue to Friday. Kristaps Porzingis is also clearly not anywhere near full strength, which puts more offensive responsibility on Holiday. Holiday’s total points have been moved to 11.5 on sportsbooks with DraftKings currently offering the best odds at Over 11.5 at -115.
“We are getting a good buy-low price because Holiday has been ultra-focused on defending Brunson, but he still managed 14 big points in Game 5 on just eight field-goal attempts.” Oh said. “Holiday only had eight of the 41 field goal attempts (19.5%) that the trio of Holiday, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard shot. In the regular season, Holiday’s share of the guard field goal attempt pie was 28.2%.” The latest DraftKings Sportsbook promo code will get you $200 in bonus bets instantly when you bet $5, and you can bet Holiday’s Over.
Jalen Brunson Under 30.5 points (-120)
Brunson has proven himself to be just as important to his team’s success as any other superstar in the NBA this postseason and even though he’s New York’s go-to scorer and creator, Brunson only has one 30-point game this series against the Celtics. The 28-year-old point guard is averaging 26.8 points per game this series after averaging 26 ppg this season. Brunson only reached 30 points in one of four regular-season games against Boston, so with his Over 30.5 margin at 2-7 during the regular season and postseason combined against the Celtics, the model sees value in Brunson’s Under on Friday.
The model projects Brunson for 26.1 points on Friday. Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla has clearly emphasized slowing down Brunson this postseason. Brunson is averaging 7.4 assists this series as he’s been relying on his teammates when garnering double teams and trap defenses. Brunson will be an important piece for New York on Friday and the model expects him to score his fair share, but an over/under total of 30.5 points is too high. DraftKings is offering his Under 30.5 points at -120, while other betting apps have moved his total points down to 29.5 points. Plus, you can get $200 in bonus bets on a $5 wager with the latest DraftKings offer code.
Luke Kornet Under 6.5 rebounds (+110)
The veteran center in his eighth NBA season had the most substantial role increase in Game 5 with Tatum out, playing 26 minutes, which was nearly double what he averaged over the first four games (13.3 minutes per contest). Kornet was a force in the paint with 10 points, nine rebounds and seven blocks while making all five of his field-goal attempts and although he’ll continue to play an expanded role, the model doesn’t project that type of production again. The model projects 4.3 rebounds over 19 minutes for Kornet, even with Tatum out.
Mazzulla said Porzningis struggled with his breathing on Wednesday, which kept the 7-foot-2 center to just 12 minutes of playing time in Game 5. But Porzningis isn’t on the Game 6 injury report, and although he’s clearly playing at less than 100% health, his 12 minutes on Wednesday were his fewest this postseason. Porzningis should be able to play more on Friday, which would limit Kornet’s minutes. After averaging 3.8 rebounds over the first four games of the series, the model sees value in Kornet Under 6.5 rebounds for Friday, especially at plus-money odds. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering the best odds at +110, while other betting apps have his Under 6.5 at minus-money odds. The latest FanDuel Sportsbook promo code will get you $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.