Major League Baseball’s regular season is entering its final month. In a matter of weeks, most of the league’s front offices will shift their attention toward the future by beginning to plot out their offseason strategies. We’re not ready to do that just yet — there are still playoff races to be decided, pennants to be earned, etc. — but we understand that for a lot of the reading audience, it’s time to look forward.
With that in mind, we here at CBS Sports decided to bring in the stretch run by offering an early preview of our annual free-agent rankings. For those new to this endeavor, every winter we rank the top 50 players in the class based on a combination of expected average annual value and their expected impact heading forward. Below, we’ve engaged in a modified version of the exercise, going only 20 players deep instead of 50.
We insist that you take these rankings for what they are — a snapshot in time — because we can guarantee you that our offseason rankings will have a different look to them. That’s for a few reasons, including improved clarity on the statuses of Roki Sasaki and other players with contractual options. By the time those rankings are published, we’ll also have a better feel for how front offices are sizing up the class. (Plus, you know, whatever revelations pop up over the next month-plus of games.)
With all that mumbo jumbo out of the way, let’s get to the good stuff.
Did you expect someone else? Soto will enter the market as a 26-year-old riding a Hall of Fame trajectory. Players who fit that description seldom become free agents; when they do, they get top billing. Soto will be coming off another impressive effort, as he’s likely to finish the season with 40-plus home runs and more walks than strikeouts. He’s as reliable an offensive force as there is in the majors, having never posted an OPS+ below 140 — that despite debuting as a teenager. In an ideal world, he’d be better than a scratch defender. Let’s be serious though: if Soto’s glove has a team shying away from him, they were never going to be a serious bidder anyway. He’s going to get paid, and paid something fierce this winter. He deserves it.
Burnes has scuffled as of late, turning in poor starts against several potential playoff foes, including the Astros, Guardians, and Red Sox. We’re not too worried about that; the more interesting, potentially ominous development we have our eyes on concerns the declining effectiveness of his cutter: opponents have both their best average (.263) and highest contact rate (over 83%) versus it since he made it his primary pitch in 2021. That explains why Burnes’ strikeout rate has slipped for a fourth consecutive season, making him more dependent on managing contact. Burnes is still an above-average starter with a great track record, don’t get us wrong, but the above trend is something that teams will have to assess before handing him a long-term deal this winter.
It’ll be interesting to see how teams value Bregman. He’s far enough removed from his best slugging years that we assume they’ll value him for what he is: a skilled contact and on-base merchant with a good glove and the ability to hit around 20 home runs (we don’t think he’ll find a ballpark fit as beneficial as Houston’s, meaning the 25-plus homer threshold might end up being beyond his reach). Adding to the intrigue is the fact that he’s had an odd season, hitting the ball hard more frequently than normal while also walking far less often and having to fight uphill after a poor start.
It’s hard for a player to fly under the radar when they have Fried’s track record, but he seems to manage. He’s a two-time All-Star and a three-time Gold Glove Award winner who could trot into the offseason with a career ERA+ above 140. Yet he feels overlooked, probably because of his workload limitations. He’s started more than 30 games just twice, and he’s averaged more than six innings per pop in a season once. Fortunately for Fried, he’s pitching in an era where teams are at greater ease with such numbers. In turn, we suspect he’s going to feel very comfortable with the figures he gets this winter.
We’re pairing Snell and Chapman together because they have a few things in common, including their current employer and the likelihood that they’ll opt out of their contracts this winter in search of greener pastures. Each is a highly accomplished player with some blemishes to their game. Still, we suspect both will find a kinder free-agent experience than what they suffered through last offseason. Note: Chapman has since signed a six-year extension with the Giants.
Adames hasn’t returned to the heights he soared to earlier in his career, when he posted a 122 OPS+ over the 2020-21 seasons. He has, nonetheless, done enough this year to erase the sour taste left from last season. Adames will be the best power-hitting shortstop available this offseason, having averaged more than 25 home runs per 162 games for his career. He’s also sporting would-be career bests in both walk and strikeout rate. His defensive metrics have taken a hit, but it’s reasonable to think he has at least a few more years left at the six. Add in how Adames is on the sunny side of 30, and he should have plenty of long-term offers in hand come the winter.
This may strike some folks as an overrank given that Kim has never made an All-Star Game, hit 20 home runs, or batted higher than .260. Boil his game down to its roots and you have a plus defensive shortstop with years of park-adjusted, league-average hitting to his name. There’s not a single point in baseball history where that profile has been out of style. Oh, and he won’t celebrate his 30th birthday for another trip around the sun. Let’s not undersell Kim’s offensive game, either. He’s not a slugger or anything, yet he seldom whiffs or chases, and he’s more than capable of both squaring the ball up and stealing bases at volume and efficiency. You’re never going to find much black ink on his Baseball Reference page, but he’s a legitimate starter on a good team.
Alonso is going to be somewhat of a polarizing free agent. There’s no denying his elite strength or his impressive track record of above-average hitting. That’s the extent of his game, however, and it doesn’t help that he’s a right-right first baseman nearing his age-30 season. Front offices tend to consider that profile fungible unless it’s attached to a generational bat like a Miguel Cabrera or an Albert Pujols. We don’t believe front offices view Alonso as being on that level. As such, if we had to guess, Alonso’s deal will probably slot in around the Paul Goldschmidt contract (five years and $130 million).
Flaherty will be making his second consecutive foray into free agency. Call it a hunch, but we think he’ll fare better than the one-year pact worth $14 million he inked last winter. More seriously: this is a better class for pitchers than hitters — to the extent that teams have plenty of options if they want to prioritize landing a starter who offers less volatility than what Flaherty has brought to the table in recent years.
We know front-office types who believe the Rule 5 draft no longer serves a purpose and should be retired. Santander’s rise since the Orioles plucked him from the Guardians is a nice counterfactual. He’s developed into a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat, a switch-hitter with power and contact chops alike. He doesn’t offer any defensive value and he’s going to turn 30 before free agency opens, but otherwise, there’s a lot to like here.
Scherzer has told reporters he intends to pitch on, into his age-40 season, despite dealing with various injuries over the last year. He should receive some lucrative one-year offers from contenders seeking the missing piece of their puzzle.
One of the market’s biggest wild cards. Bieber appeared resurgent in two starts before undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. Will some team offer him multiple years, or will the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner have to settle for a pillow contract?
It wasn’t too long ago Eovaldi was known as a chronic underperformer. He’s since pieced things together to the point where it feels like he can remain an above-average starter for a few more years yet. Eovaldi’s contributions to a pair of World Series winners could appeal to teams seeking a starter with a certain je ne sais quoi.
15. Teoscar Hernández, OF, Dodgers
Hernández has been a key part of the Dodgers lineup, but we suspect that teams will have reservations about handing him a long-term deal. The same brickbats from last winter still apply — he’s whiff-happy; he’s a negative defender; and so on — and now he’s nearing his 32nd birthday. We’ll add that, for as productive as Hernández has been, his OPS+ could finish as his second lowest in the past five years.
Scroll back up to what we wrote about Alonso and right-handed-hitting first basemen … then consider that Walker is almost four years Alonso’s senior. He deserves a nice raise, but it’s worth being realistic about how the marketplace tends to value his type.
Holmes blowing more saves this season than in the last two combined has received ample press. Our Mike Axisa recently explained why that tidbit is somewhat misleading. We think teams will gladly overlook it this winter to sign Holmes.
Severino has rebounded from a disastrous showing last year by becoming a different pitcher than the one he was earlier in his career. He’s fastball-sinker-sweeper now, not fastball-slider-change, and he’s traded in strikeouts for more controlled contact. It’s worked for him so far, suggesting some team will pony up with a multi-year deal.
Manaea’s full-season return to the rotation has worked out well enough. The sweeper he harnessed last year has made the difference, giving him a pitch that’s effective at both missing bats and barrels. The Mets have even let him stretch his legs since the start of July, with him recording seven or more innings in six of his last 10 tries.
Kikuchi has long been an enigma with better stuff than results. The tweaks he’s made since joining the Astros — mothballing his curveball in favor of more sliders and changeups — have his arrow pointing up. We’ll see if it stays that way.
