The final day of the 2024 WNBA regular season has arrived, and one playoff spot remains up for grabs. After a number of dramatic swings over the past few weeks, there are still three teams alive and fighting for the No. 8 seed: the Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky.
Heading into Thursday’s games, the Dream, who were minutes away from being eliminated from playoff contention over the weekend, hold the upper hand, but there are scenarios where the Mystics and Sky can still claim the spot. Ahead of the action, here’s a look at the current standings, tiebreakers, remaining opponents and every possible scenario.
Standings, tiebreakers, remaining opponent
Note: Two-team ties are decided first by head-to-head record and then, if necessary, better record against .500+ teams. Ties between more than two teams are determined by combined head-to-head record against the other teams.
8. Atlanta Dream (14-25)
- Tiebreakers: vs. Sky (2-2); vs. Mystics (2-2); combined (4-4); vs. .500+ opponents (4-17); vs. .500+ opponents if the Mercury get to .500 (5-20)
- Remaining game: at Liberty
9. Washington Mystics (13-26)
- Tiebreakers: vs. Sky (3-1); vs. Dream (2-2); combined (5-3); vs. .500+ opponents (2-20); vs. .500+ opponents if the Mercury get to .500 (3-22)
- Remaining game: vs. Fever
10. Chicago Sky (13-26)
- Tiebreakers: vs. Dream (2-2); vs. Mystics (1-3); combined (3-5); vs. .500+ opponents (4-17); vs. .500+ opponents if the Mercury get to .500 (4-20)
- Remaining game: at Sun
Scenarios
Dream win
- Dream get No. 8 seed, face Liberty in playoffs
- Mystics and Sky eliminated
The Dream control their own destiny. If they beat the Liberty on Thursday, they get the No. 8 seed, regardless of what happens in the other two games. They are 0-3 against the Liberty this season, with two of those losses being blowouts, but Breanna Stewart and Co. clinched the No. 1 overall seed on Tuesday, so they may not run out a full strength team. (Should the Dream get into the playoffs they would face the Liberty in New York in the first two games of the best-of-three first-round series.)
Dream lose, Mystics lose, Sky lose
- Dream get No. 8 seed, face Liberty in playoffs
- Mystics and Sky eliminated
This is another of the straightforward scenarios. If all three teams lose on Thursday, the Dream, who are currently a game up on both the Mystics and Sky, would get the No. 8 seed. Given the opponents and their previous track record, it’s very possible that all three of these teams lose.
Dream lose, Mystics win, Sky lose
- Dream get No. 8 seed, face Liberty in playoffs
- Mystics and Sky eliminated
If the Dream lose and one or both of the other teams win, that’s where it starts to get a bit complicated. Let’s first look at this potential outcome, where the Dream and Sky drop their games, and the Mystics beat the Fever. If that happens, the Sky would be out, and the Dream and Mystics would finish with idential 14-26 records, which would send things to the tiebreaker.
If two teams are tied at the end of the season, the first tiebreak is head-to-head record. The Dream and Mystics are 2-2 against each other, so we would then go to the second tiebreaker: record against .500 or better teams.
Should the Dream lose to the Liberty and the Mystics beat the Fever, the Dream would be 4-18 against those opponents and the Mystics would be 3-20. There is another wrinkle here, however, as the Mercury will get to .500 if they win their final game against the Seattle Storm. But even if you add that into the mix, the records still favor the Dream, who would be 5-21 against .500 or better opposition, while the Mystics would be 4-22.
Thus, the Dream would get the No. 8 seed, while the Mystics would be on their way to the lottery.
Dream lose, Mystics lose, Sky win
- Sky get No. 8 seed, face Liberty in playoffs
- Dream and Mystics eliminated
Here’s a different scenario that involves a Dream loss, and Mystics loss and a Sky win over the Sun. Here, the Mystics would be out, while the Dream and Sky would finish with identical 14-26 records.
Again, we would go to a two-team tiebreaker. The Dream and Sky also finished the season 2-2 against each other, so we would need to look at record against .500 or better opponents.
If the Dream lose to the Liberty and the Sky beat the Sun, the Dream would be 4-18 against those opponents, while the Sky would be 5-17. If we include a scenario where the Mercury win their final game to get to .500 themselves, the Dream would be 5-21 versus teams with a .500 or better record, while the Sky would be 5-20.
As a result, if the Sky win while the Dream and Mystics lose, the Sky would steal the No. 8 seed. This is the only scenario where the Sky can get into the playoffs.
Dream lose, Mystics win, Sky win
- Mystics get No. 8 seed, face Liberty in playoffs
- Dream and Sky eliminated
Finally, we have arrived at the last potential outcome, which would be a Dream loss and wins for both the Mystics and Sky. This one, thankfully, is not nearly as complex. Should this happen, all three teams would finish the season with the same 14-26 record.
Ties between more than two teams are determined by the combined head-to-head record against the other teams. This season, that is:
- Mystics: 5-3
- Dream: 4-4
- Sky: 3-5
The Mystics would win that three-way tiebreaker, and the No. 8 seed. This is the only scenario where the Mystics can get into the playoffs.
