Bowl projections: Alabama drops from top at-large spot in College Football Playoff as Michigan exits field

I always like to say that you don’t really find out how good a team is until they start playing conference games on the road. For example, let’s take a look at what just transpired in Week 6:

In each case, it was the losing team’s first conference game on the road — except for Tennessee, which won at Oklahoma earlier in the season, and USC, which is now 0-2 in Big Ten roadies.

No. 8 Miami nearly added itself to this list, but the Hurricanes rallied back from a 25-point, second-half deficit to beat Cal 39-38.

The automatic qualifiers for the College Football Playoff from last week’s bowl projections remain the same this week. Despite some craziness on Saturday, those four teams came out unscathed, while Texas had the good sense not to play at all.

The at-large berths have changed a bit, though. Alabama dropped to sixth following the loss at Vanderbilt with Oregon moving up to No. 5 in its place. Georgia is still serving as a floor for the Crimson Tide as the Bulldogs sit at No. 7 in the field.

Michigan, which was the projected 10-seed last week, has dropped out of the field. Clemson moves up to the Wolverines spot at No. 10, while Texas A&M rejoins the field as the 11-seed. The Aggies had been in my preseason projections but dropped out after season-opening loss to Notre Dame.

For those of you counting at home, that is four SEC teams, three from the Big Ten, two each from the Big 12 and ACC and 12-seed Boise State rounds out the list as the Group of Five representative from the Mountain West. There are also two rematches of regular-season, nonconference games in the opening round and one game between two SEC teams that is not a regular-season rematch.

Quarterfinals

First round

There are still several teams still very much in contention for CFP bids. If you were to create a bubble this early, it would be as big as the playoff itself.  

There would be four in the SEC teams alone, although Tennessee hurt itself this week with a loss at Arkansas. I have been saying the Volunteers would have to beat either Alabama or Georgia to have a strong chance of getting in — and now, it is their only chance. The game between Ole Miss and LSU next week is likely going to knock the loser out of contention. Missouri is also in dire straits with only a game against Alabama left that could grab the CFP selection committee’s attention.

In the Big Ten, Ohio State plays at Oregon in what could be a preview of the conference championship game. Penn State is at USC, which gives the Trojans a chance to bounce back from the loss at Minnesota and revive their CFP hopes. If the Nittany Lions lose, they may have to beat the Buckeyes on Nov. 2 to hold out hope for an at-large berth.

Iowa already has two losses after falling at Ohio State on Saturday. However, the Hawkeyes could still play their way into the Big Ten Championship Game because one of their losses came to Iowa State. The conference title is probably Iowa’s only path to a CFP bid.

And what of Notre Dame? The Irish could be hurt by their relatively soft schedule and, of course, the loss to Northern Illinois.  Even if they finish 11-1, it is possible none of those wins will be over a team in the final rankings. If Texas A&M can remain strong, that could be Notre Dame’s only win over a team listed in the final CFP Rankings come season’s end. I doubt the committee would leave out 11-1 Notre Dame, but 10-2 is no sure thing.

Just to be clear, the CFP does not care at all about game-time rankings — not even their own. The AP Top 25 and Coaches polls are explicitly not criteria; they consider ranked opponents as teams in their own most recent rankings. However, schedule evaluations are more in depth than that.

We have a good chance to have several teams with nine or 10 wins at the end of the year with not a noteworthy win among them. Those kinds of teams will make the committee’s job difficult if they need one or two to fill out the field.

For the first time this season, there is only one team in the bowl projections expected to finish 5-7. That team is Wisconsin, which badgered Purdue 52-6 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score would indicate.

Don’t see your team? Check out Jerry Palm’s complete bowl projections.