With five teams qualifying for Champions League play in the Premier League due to their performance in European competition, things have gotten tight with the top seven all in the mix for a place. The first two places of Liverpool and Arsenal seem just about set, while Newcastle United’s great run of form lately has them well placed to finish in a Champions League spot. But behind them, Manchester City, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest are only separated by three points, and tensions are rising.
On Sunday, Forest had a Champions League place within their reach, leading relegated Leicester City until conceding in the 81st minute of play. Those two points dropped were critical as it could’ve seen Forest go above Chelsea into fifth, but instead they’re seventh, looking up. While this was a team that narrowly avoided relegation last season, their recent form of only two wins in their last eight matches has seen the Tricky Trees slide down the table from third to seventh. Owner Evangelos Marinakis’ frustrations also showed following the draw facing Leicester as he exchanged words with manager Nuno Espirito Santo at the conclusion of the match.
Not having the experience of being in the race for Europe this late in the season, it does make sense that Forest are falling back to earth, but when the Champions League is so close to their grasp, it doesn’t make it easier to deal with either. Their poor spell couldn’t have come at a worse time, as teams like Aston Villa are hitting peak performance as the season comes to a close.
Premier League top seven
| Pos | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 36 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 83 | 37 | +46 | 83 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 66 | 33 | +33 | 68 |
| 3 | Newcastle United | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 68 | 45 | +23 | 66 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 67 | 43 | +24 | 65 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 62 | 43 | +19 | 63 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 56 | 49 | +7 | 63 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest | 36 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 56 | 44 | +12 | 62 |
Who ends up in the top five?
Liverpool winning the title means they’re set for the Champions League next season, and while Arsenal can technically fall out of the top four, it’s highly unlikely that the Gunners miss out of the Champions League next season. Newcastle still have to face Arsenal but a draw in that match will be good enough for both teams. Lose, and things could get murky, but when taking into account goal difference, it’d be tough to see the Magpies missing out as they should take care of Everton on the final day.
City also suffered a damaging draw to a relegated team, drawing 0-0 away to Southampton. A victory could’ve all but assured their place in UCL next season, but instead, they’ll now have to see how things shake out. Facing Bournemouth, it won’t be easy to come away with a victory, but City should still get the job done. After losing to Newcastle United, Chelsea needs to win out, but if they drop points, Aston Villa are there and waiting. Facing Tottenham and Manchester United in their next few games, Villa could benefit from their rivals being focused on the Europa League final. If Villa don’t win out, Chelsea, facing Forest on the final day, could determine the top five.
Prediction
1. Liverpool
2. Arsenal
3. Newcastle United
4. Manchester City
5. Aston Villa