We’ve spent the past few months telling you how we feel about the draft pool, from sleepers to breakouts to category specialists to priority positions. Now, it’s time to see which of those messages resonated.
Or maybe even what we missed. There’s wisdom in consensus, after all, and it’s in that vein that I decided to take the pulse of the Fantasy Baseball-playing public with a good old fashioned survey. Below are eight questions that I submitted to my Twitter (yes, I’m still calling it that) and Facebook followers, along with a final tally of their responses.
Who’s the one player you have to have this year?
Top three last year: Oneil Cruz (11), Cole Ragans (11), tie – Juan Soto, Royce Lewis, Triston Casas (10)
Cruz was actually the leader in both 2023 and 2024, but he now drops off the chart entirely, having garnered only three votes. I would say it’s because repeated letdowns have sobered the majority on his potential, but by pure ADP, he’s actually being drafted higher than ever. More likely, it’s a matter of respondents wanting value from their favorites picks, and while the top vote-getter here, Robbie Ray, has been flying up draft boards, he’s still priced reasonably as a former Cy Young winner who has been dominating spring training with improved velocity and a new Tarik Skubal-inspired changeup.
Not just Ray, but each of the top six have been rapidly moving up draft boards, which is of course a symptom rather than the cause of their popularity. Bo Bichette, Junior Caminero, Jordan Westburg, Lawrence Butler and Spencer Schwellenbach have been among the most discussed players on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, usually in a favorable light. Shoot, Caminero even inspired a song. I still say Bichette is an incredible value outside Pick 100, and I think the latest price tags on Westburg, Butler and Schwellenbach are reasonable, given their upside. I’m less sure about Caminero, who’s verging on top-70 status.
As for my favorites — let’s say one hitter and one pitcher — they’re a little further down the board. I’m anticipating Isaac Paredes being a mid-to-high-end third baseman with his move to Daikin Park in Houston, but ADP still has him going around Pick 175. I’ll have more to say about Gavin Williams in a bit.
Received three votes: Dylan Crews, WAS; Oneil Cruz, PIT; Elly De La Cruz, CIN; Bryce Harper, PHI; Grant Holmes, ATL; Bryce Miller, SEA; Vinnie Pasquantino, KC; Joe Ryan, MIN; Cristopher Sanchez, PHI;
My choice: Isaac Paredes
Which starting pitcher is the best bet to break out?
Top three last year: Tarik Skubal (27), Bobby Miller (24), Eury Perez (21)
This has been a blazing-hot development this spring: Gavin Williams looks like he’s about to step into unadulterated acedom. Turns out an elbow injury last spring messed up his mechanics, but now that his fastball has its induced vertical break back, it’s piling up whiffs at an absurd rate. He’s a dark horse Cy Young pick being drafted in about the 180 range in recent days (a little too close to Isaac Paredes, if you ask me).
Cristopher Sanchez has also captured the imagination of this survey’s respondents with his work this spring, ramping up his velocity without any deleterious effects on his control. Spring risers populate much of this list, in fact, with others including Casey Mize, Clay Holmes, Ryan Weathers, Zebby Matthews and Joe Boyle. Those last two are less likely to have a role from the start, with Matthews having been sent down already.
Schwellenbach has been touted all offseason as a breakout pick, to the point he’s not such a value in drafts, but his elite command and deep arsenal still make him a likely success. Nick Lodolo is sort of the forever breakout candidate and looked the part through the first three months last season before a blister neutered his curveball. We’ll give him one more go of it.
Received two votes: Shane Baz, TB; Brayan Bello, BOS; Richard Fitts, BOS; Bowden Francis, TOR; Jackson Jobe, DET; Bryce Miller, SEA; Reese Olson, DET; Andrew Painter, PHI; Kumar Rocker, TEX
My choice: Gavin Williams
Which early-rounder do you want nothing to do with?
Top three last year: Luis Robert (22), Elly De La Cruz (20), Bo Bichette (14)
Respondents nailed the Luis Robert pick last year, but I’m less on board with their choices this year. I think it’s just a matter of too much being made of too little, though I suppose with high-end picks, an abundance of caution is warranted. The Rafael Devers situation is particularly perplexing since he was held out of spring action for so long and has been strong-armed into the DH spot, but I think there were internal politics at play there. The Red Sox basically didn’t want him to play third base anymore, hence the Alex Bregman signing, and I think they used last year’s shoulder troubles (which he navigated well for the most part) as an excuse to shift him. At no point was there ever a question about Devers’ availability, just where he’d play. Now that he’s relented about manning DH, I suspect he’ll be fine … probably.
The reasons for Jazz Chisholm and Freddie Freeman placing so high are also health-related, but there’s nothing specific for Chisholm right now. Meanwhile, he was on a 39-homer, 64-steal pace after joining the Yankees last year, is expected to bat higher in the lineup this year, and is soon to have triple eligibility. It wouldn’t be me avoiding him, no sir. As for Freeman, there’s been some talk of him taking time to manage his sore ankle this season, but he’s looked good this spring and has been such a gamer over the years that I’m skeptical he’ll actually follow through on it. He remains an elite source of batting average, runs and RBI batting high in the Dodgers lineup.
The early-rounders who worry me the most go just a little after the true elites. I’m specifically talking about Jacob deGrom, whose arm has repeatedly shown it doesn’t hold up to a starter’s workload anymore, and Oneil Cruz, who I think will continue to underwhelm until he addresses his strikeout and/or launch angle issues.
Received two votes: Ozzie Albies, ATL; Gunnar Henderson, BAL; Aaron Judge, NYY; Wyatt Langford, TEX; Jackson Merrill, SD; Marcus Semien, TEX; Juan Soto, NYM; Trea Turner, PHI
My choice: deGrom/Cruz
Who’s your go-to for cheap power?
Top three last year: Jake Burger (40), Jorge Soler (16), Nolan Gorman (15)
What does it say that the top two are the same as last year, albeit less decisively? If nothing else, it says they weren’t productive enough to elevate themselves beyond “cheap” status, though I’d dispute that Jake Burger is actually cheap given that he’s verged on being a top-100 pick in recent weeks.
Brandon Lowe is much cheaper, and I’ve said elsewhere he could be the Pete Alonso of second base if he stays healthy (a big if, admittedly). I’ve talked in recent weeks about how undervalued Rhys Hoskins and Max Muncy are in drafts, and I’ve found myself waiting longer and longer to fill my corner infield spot as a result. But I would like to take this opportunity to highlight my original favorite for cheap power, Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. He was a 33-homer guy before the Orioles moved back the left field fence in 2022, and he’s only added exit velocity since then. With the fences moving in again this year, I’m expecting a return to 30-plus homers.
Received two votes: Nolan Gorman, STL; Ryan Mountcastle, BAL; Luke Raley, SEA
My choice: Ryan Mountcastle
Who’s your go-to for cheap speed?
Top three last year: Jarren Duran (19), Esteury Ruiz (15), Maikel Garcia (15)
Look at the top response from last year! Having your cheap stolen base target go on to become a second-round pick in Fantasy is truly living your best life, and it goes to show that you can meet a stolen base need late in drafts without sacrificing upside. Dylan Crews would be a clear example of this … if he was actually going late, but sort of like Jake Burger in the previous question about power bats, Crews is more of a mid-round target.
So does Victor Robles have the upside for more than just speed? Does Xavier Edwards? Both showed the potential to hit for batting average last year, but unlike Duran (or Crews), there’s no power to speak of. Edwards has more of a history of hitting for average and a batted-ball profile better suited for it, but slap-hitting speedsters rarely hold up in today’s game. If he turns out to be an exception to the rule, though, his on-base skills figure to make him a points-league standout as well, which is noteworthy because we generally think of speedsters category-league specialists.
Another speedster who offers even more upside for Head-to-Head points than Rotisserie is Nico Hoerner, who lasts a good 50-60 picks beyond Edwards and is also likely to be a plus for batting average, a particularly difficult category to fill at that stage of the draft. Second base offers a number of fallback options for stolen bases, with Andres Gimenez and Bryson Stott also standing out, but Hoerner is my favorite because he goes the latest of the three and has the added batting average perk.
To promote another of my favorites, drafting Cedric Mullins outside the top 200 seems like a gift in five-outfielder Roto leagues, though you do have to safeguard against batting average with him. I’d also like to give a little hat tip to the three people who responded with David Hamilton. He’s a total afterthought drafts but has a real shot of being the Red Sox’s primary second baseman.
Received two votes: TJ Friedl, CIN; Andres Gimenez, TOR; Cedric Mullins, BAL; Brice Turang, MIL
My choice: Nico Hoerner
Which position is the most critical to fill early?
Top three last year: outfield (96), starting pitcher (15), second base (9)
You can see that unlike last year, there isn’t a runaway pick this year, which is why I’ve mostly adopted Heath Cummings’ no intentional position strategy (or NIPS, as he prefers to call it). But the deeper we go into draft season, the more I’ve come to agree with the consensus that first base is the position where you’re most likely to get boxed out. This is especially true in shallower leagues, where you’re not going to be reaching far enough into the position to enjoy corner infield targets like Rhys Hoskins and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and it’s most especially true in points leagues, where Jake Burger and Ryan Mountcastle are also of no real interest.
Turns out the size and format of the league do a lot to change the comparative depth of various positions. Shortstop is full of promise through about 20 players but quickly turns to tumbleweeds thereafter. It makes waiting on it a viable strategy in 10-team leagues with no extra middle infield spot but a dangerous one in 15-team leagues that do require a third middle infielder.
I will say, though, that regardless of format, starting ptcher isn’t a high priority early on. Whether in a 10-teamer or a 15-teamer, I can find pitchers I like at all stages of the draft.
My choice: first base
Which closer are you most fearful will lose his job?
Top three last year: Carlos Estevez (21), Craig Kimbrel (17), tie – Adbert Alzolay, Jose Alvarado (10)
The sneering that accompanied some of the Robert Suarez responses, like his job was as good as lost already, was too much for me. Is he the best reliever on the Padres? Probably not. Is he the worst reliever currently serving as a closer somewhere? Not by a long shot. He’s pretty good, in fact, and was remarkably stable for the first five months of 2024. The Padres themselves don’t view it as a point of concern and are likely to give Suarez a long leash early on. It’s not unthinkable he could lose the job since he’s not the bat-misser that most closers are, but to say he’s the most likely just rings untrue to me. The way he’s been sliding in drafts, it seems like a buy opportunity, quite frankly.
Alexis Diaz is my pick. A good first half in 2023 installed him in the role, but in 90 appearances since then — a season and a half, basically — he has a 4.20 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. He’s not a closer-caliber reliever, and new manager Terry Francona no loyalty him in the role.
Pretty much all of the responses here are justifiable. David Bednar had a rough 2024 and has had an even worse spring. Tanner Scott is in a bullpen with several closer possibilities, and his frequent control lapses could activate manager Dave Roberts’ itchy trigger finger. Ryan Pressly’s stuff, Kenley Jansen’s age, Pete Fairbanks’ health and Carlos Estevez’s all of the above are also in question, and all four have talented understudies. I’ve also wondered if, for as good as Jhoan Duran is, Griffin Jax might just be better.
Received two votes: Aroldis Chapman, BOS; Jason Foley, DET
My choice: Alexis Diaz
Which prospect (Roki Sasaki excluded) will have the biggest impact this year?
Top three last year: Jackson Chourio (46), Jackson Holliday (37), Wyatt Langford (31)
These results are always polluted by respondents simply not knowing what a prospect is. Among those receiving votes who don’t actually qualify were Junior Caminero (seven) and James Wood (two). In a similar vein, I suspect that Dylan Crews and possibly Jasson Dominguez would have placed higher if respondents knew that they do qualify as prospects. They’re being selected well in advance of Matt Shaw in redraft leagues, after all.
The fact that Shaw, a player being drafted outside of the top 200, could get such a big share of the responses shows either that this year’s rookie class is underwhelming or that we’ve become more cautious in the way we draft them. I think it’s more the latter, and that’s a reasonable response to some of the prospect fakeouts we’ve seen in recent years. I’ll note, though, that after slow starts last year, Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill and Wyatt Langford did finally come around, so we don’t want to bury these guys either (whether Shaw, Roman Anthony, Cam Smith or Kristian Campbell). Of course, it’s also possible their rookie seasons could go the way Jordan Walker’s or Jackson Holliday’s did.
My choice: Dylan Crews
