The New York Jets underwent sweeping changes this week, firing head coach Robert Saleh Tuesday and replacing offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett with Todd Downing as the team’s offensive play-caller Thursday. New York’s defense has held its own so all eyes will be on the response from Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense as they face a tough opponent in the Buffalo Bills on “Monday Night Football.”
So far, the Jets offense has fallen well below expectations. They are 24th in EPA per play and 27th in yards per play. They even have the same exact record (2-3) and number of points (93) as last season through five games.
So what’s the problem?
Aaron Rodgers might be washed
The blame game has to start with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. Up to this point, it’s fair to wonder if Father Time has caught up with the 40-year old quarterback. He’s putting up pretty much the same exact numbers as Zach Wilson at this point last year. This is the worst five-game start in Rodgers’ career in terms of pass yards, yards per attempt and passer rating. He’s also extended his 300-yard passing game drought to 27 games.
|
Team W-L |
3-2 |
3-2 |
|
Comp. pct. |
61.1% |
61.0% |
|
Yards per attempt |
6.1 |
6.0 |
|
Team PPG |
18.6 |
18.6 |
The underlying stats don’t suggest a turnaround is in sight, either. Rodgers ranks fifth worst in CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) this year (-7%) after he was top 10 in his 2020, 2021 MVP seasons. He also has the 11th-highest off-target rate in the league. I don’t think we can use his comeback from an Achilles injury as a scapegoat. Kirk Cousins suffered his injury two months later than Rodgers last year, is in his first year in Atlanta and still has the seventh-best CPOE (+4%) this year and lowest off-target rate in the entire league.
The Jets’ retooled offensive line hasn’t been good, but even with a clean pocket, Rodgers is averaging 5.9 yards per attempt, fourth worst in the NFL. He torched opposing defenses with time in the pocket during his MVP years to the tune of 8.5 yards per attempt from 2020-21. Finally, only Deshaun Watson averages fewer yards per attempt (3.7) than Rodgers (5.0) with three-plus seconds to throw this year, suggesting this is far from the vintage Rodgers who could extend plays.
Rodgers’ lack of chemistry with Garrett Wilson
If there was one thing you’d hope would be clicking with Rodgers in the early going it’d be his connection with Garrett Wilson. Nope. No duo has more pass attempts between them this year than Rodgers and Wilson. Yet, Rodgers is averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt targeting Wilson. In a word, that is BAD. Bryce Young averages 5.4 yards per attempt in his career. For a star connection to fall below that mark is unacceptable.
Rodgers fed Wilson 23 targets in Week 5, tied for the second most in any game since 2000, but it still just added up to 101 yards, the second fewest in a game with 20+ targets in that span. The chemistry hasn’t developed yet as the timing between the pair has been off, particularly on Rodgers’ patented back-shoulder throws. Perhaps this ups the ante for the Jets to make a push for Davante Adams.
Play (in)action
Another thing that you’d think could get Rodgers and the Jets offense cooking is play action. That hasn’t worked either. Actually, it’s failed miserably. Rodgers ranks dead last in yards per attempt on play action this season (3.7), and he’s using it at the 21st-highest rate in the league (21%). Again, I hate to point to MVP standards because those might be unattainable at this point, but he had 31 touchdown passes and no interceptions from 2020-21 with a play fake and he utilized them at a top-10 rate in the league (27%).
Jets ground game
The Jets’ rushing attack hasn’t been able to take any pressure off Rodgers. They rank last in the NFL in rushing (80.4 yards per game) this year and third worst in yards per rush (3.6). Breece Hall has just 19 carries for 27 yards in the last two weeks and hasn’t topped 62 yards or 4.5 yards per rush in any of his five games this season. He’s last in the league in yards per rush among 40 players with 40+ carries (3.0), but it’s hardly his fault. The offensive line has gotten zero push. Hall has been hit in the backfield on a whopping 40 percent of his carries and is averaging a staggering 0.1 yards before contact per rush. Only Tony Pollard is worse (0.0) among players with 40+ carries.
Tough start to schedule
One silver lining is the Jets have played a few tough defenses so far, including the top two teams in defensive EPA in the last two games (Vikings, Broncos). As for their other opponents so far, the Titans rank sixth, the 49ers are 13th (and have been better than that in recent years) and the Patriots are 21st. It will also be tough sledding in the next two weeks vs. the Bills (eighth in defensive EPA) and Steelers (12th in defensive EPA) before the schedule eases up.
More balance coming with Todd Downing
It’s hard to imagine things getting significantly better when Rodgers’ hand-picked offensive coordinator (Nathaniel Hackett) is out, but here’s what to look for with his replacement Todd Downing. The Titans were sixth in rushing offense from 2020-21 with Downing as the OC under Mike Vrabel. At the very least this should be a more physical football team, one that gets more out of Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen. The Jets have the third-highest dropback rate in the NFL this year (67%) and it’s not like they’ve been playing from behind all the time. Tennessee had the lowest dropback rate in the league under Downing (53%) so there’s going to be bigger commitment to running.
We can also expect more motion. Tennessee was ninth in pre-snap motion usage under Downing and the Jets are 28th this year.
We’ll see if the Jets’ sense of urgency pays immediate dividends. So far their offense has been broken across the board from Rodgers, to the coaching, playmakers and offensive line.
