AMELIA ISLAND, Fla. — The College Football Playoff’s power brokers are nearing consensus to change the seeding process next season and eliminate first-round byes for conference champions, sources told CBS Sports.
The “straight seeding” proposal has gained support from the ACC and Big 12 in recent weeks, sources said. On Wednesday, ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said for the first time that the format “may be the right thing for us to consider.” CFP administrators must approve the proposal, which could happen within the next month, sources said. The proposal requires unanimous approval from the 10 FBS conferences and Notre Dame to be enacted for the 2025-26 season.
The Big Ten and SEC openly supported a shift to straight seeding during a meeting between conference athletic directors and administrators in March.
The CFP expanded to 12 teams for the 2024 season, with the top four conference champions receiving first-round byes. Starting in 2025, straight seeding would eliminate those automatic byes and instead reward the top four teams in the CFP selection committee’s final rankings.
The 12-team format’s contract expires at the end of the upcoming season. Discussions about expanding the field to 14 or 16 teams — with multiple automatic qualifiers reserved for the four power conferences — have been ongoing for months. Administrators are hopeful a format will be approved by the time CFP officials meet June 18.
Our takes
What last season showed us
Betting favorites were 10-1 in the first year of the 12-team CFP. Those results were aided by a bracket format that allowed lower-ranked teams to achieve higher seeds based on the automatic byes provided to conference champions. This disassociation between seeding and rankings was confusing for some fans to follow during the regular season and ended up creating an imbalance in the bracket that worked against the top two teams in the field.
No. 1 seed Oregon was the only undefeated team in the country, and after winning the Big Ten, its reward was facing eventual national champion Ohio State. No. 2 seed Georgia emerged from its toughest schedule in years as SEC champion and then squared off against the eventual runner-up Notre Dame in its first CFP game.
If we use the AP Top 25 poll as an objective reference here, that’s the No. 1 team facing the No. 6 team in a quarterfinal round that would usually produce a No. 8 or. No. 9 seed. Even more telling is the poor draw for Georgia, which as the No. 2 seed should face a No. 7 or No. 10 seed but in Notre Dame had to square off with the No. 3 team in the country, according to the AP poll. The No. 2 vs. No. 3 matchup is usually reserved for the semifinals, not the quarterfinals.
All of this occurred because of the overcomplicated seeding rules. Boise State jumped up to the No. 3 seed while ranked No. 8, Arizona State got the No. 4 seed while ranked No. 10 and Notre Dame was relegated to the No. 7 seed because of the explicit favoritism given to conference champions and implicit favoritism that the committee gave to the runners-up from the Big Ten and SEC.
If we line up seeding to rankings, it will remove these unnecessary complications and create more games between teams that are objectively rated similarly. It will not avoid blowouts, which we also saw often in the semifinals of the four-team format, but it will lessen the likelihood that teams that are advantaged — or disadvantaged — by the draw. — Chip Patterson
Winning a conference title would still matter
Giving the top four conference champions auto-bids was a noble attempt at re-incentivizing conference championships, and in many ways, it worked. Arizona State/Iowa State, Boise State/UNLV and Clemson/SMU were all defacto play-in games with massive hype. But when the bracket came out and the No. 4 seed was the No. 12 team in the committee’s own rankings, it drastically upset the balance of the bracket.
In the second round 5-seed Texas played No. 12-ranked Arizona State. while 1-seed Oregon played No. 6-ranked Ohio State. Nothing can truly protect from a talented team like Ohio State ruining its own seeding with ridiculous regular season losses and Arizona State deserved far more than a No. 12 ranking after a great season. Still, that’s a different conversation.
Conference championships should still be rewarded handsomely, but just a seat at the table is highly valuable. Clemson showed plenty of fight in the first round against Texas and should come into 2025 with serious hype. Arizona State nearly pulled off a monumental upset against the Longhorns in the final minutes. Simply ensuring the top five conference champions is enough; slotting them as the top four seeds isn’t necessary. Missing out on a conference championship also meant Ohio State had to beat No. 1, 3, 5 and 7 in the rankings to have a chance. It’s a serious punishment.
Long term, don’t be surprised if the field expands to 16 teams so that every one of the top eight teams gets a coveted home playoff game. If byes are off the table, guaranteeing the five auto-bids should be enough benefit without seeding manipulation. — Shehan Jeyarajah