Six weeks into the season, the Dallas Cowboys are in a bad place. They have been blown out in all three of their home games, with the latest of those being a thoroughly embarrassing 47-9 drubbing at the hands of the Detroit Lions.
If Dallas were only struggling on defense — after seeing coordinator Dan Quinn leave for the head coaching job in Washington and losing starters like Dorance Armstrong, Leighton Vander Esch, Stephon Gilmore, Jayron Kearse and more, then seeing each of this season’s top four edge rushers (Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence, Marshawn Kneeland and Sam Williams) get injured — that would be one thing. But the offense has been struggling, too.
Last year, Dallas checked in fifth in yards per game, first in points per game, first in the share of drives that ended in a touchdown or field goal and second in TruMedia’s version of EPA per play. This year, they are down to 14th in yards per game, 19th in points per game, 12th in the share of drives ending in a score and 23rd in EPA per play.
It would be one thing if only the run game were struggling, after losing Tyron Smith, Tyler Biadasz and Tony Pollard in free agency and replacing them with either rookies (offensive linemen Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe) or nobody (or worse, Ezekiel Elliott). But the pass game has struggled, too. Dak Prescott has gone from an inner-circle MVP candidate to a player who has been been able to get anything going through the air.
Former Dallas Cowboys quarterback and Pro Football Hall of Famer Troy Aikman thinks he knows the culprit for the passing game’s struggles: the team’s wide receivers. Asked about the Cowboys’ issues during a radio appearance, here’s how Aikman responded, via The Athletic:
“I think the routes are terrible. I think they run terrible routes. And I’ve thought that beyond this year. I think CeeDee (Lamb) has got to improve in his route running. As a quarterback, if you’re not certain where guys are going to be consistently, it’s hard to play the position. That’s what I see. I see guys lazy coming off the line of scrimmage. Sometimes they run, usually if they do, it’s because they’re anticipating they’re going to get the football on that play, but if they’re not, they don’t. And it all ties together. I’m not impressed with that part of it.
“I just finished watching the Baltimore Ravens because I have them this week. You put on film of theirs and watch their receivers run routes and they come off the football, so does San Francisco’s and Green Bay’s and others. But it’s hard to play the (QB) position if you’re not certain how guys are going to run routes or where they’re going to be. And I’m not speaking for Dak (Prescott). Dak may say, ‘Hey, I think (their routes) are amazing.’ But as a former quarterback watching it, it’s gotta get a lot better.”
That’s a pretty damning indictment on Dallas’ receiver corps, which pretty much everybody outside the Jones family knew coming into the season was, outside of Lamb, simply not a contender-caliber unit. And the thing is, Aikman’s assertions are backed up by both the film and the data. Anyone who has watched Dallas this year has seen the receivers be totally unable to separate. But thanks to the player-tracking data that now exists, we can actually quantify how much they have struggled in that area.
Here’s how the Cowboys’ wide receivers rank, among the 126 wideouts who have run 50 routes or more this season, in various route-running success measurements included in the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Only one of the team’s top five wideouts (Lamb) ranks inside the top 32 (i.e. No. 1-receiver caliber) in any of these categories: Average Separation Score (which measures exactly what it sounds like), Route Win Rate (same) and Yards Per Target Over Expectation.
As a result of those issues, Prescott is being forced to throw into tight windows at the NFL’s second-highest rate (22.8% of his attempts), per NFL.com’s NextGen Stats data. He was sixth in tight-window throw rate last season, but made up for it by ranking second overall and first among regular starters in completion percentage over expectation. With a more mortal performance relative to expectations this year, the passing game is an absolute mess.
Neither the receivers nor Prescott are done any favors by the coaching staff. The best offensive minds in the game scheme their players into open space, making things easier for the quarterback and pass catchers. The Cowboys do nothing of the sort. They depend on their wideouts to win their matchups and their quarterback to pick the right one and fire a pass with pin-perfect accuracy. If any of that goes wrong, you get what you have seen so far this season.
