Injuries can play a pivotal role in the outcome of 2025 NCAA Tournament matchups, and there are multiple injuries to monitor heading into the 2025 March Madness bracket. No. 3 seed Iowa State has already ruled out second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert due to a muscle strain. The Cyclones went 8-7 in their final 15 games of the regular season and their offensive efficiency dropped to 69th overall. They will face No. 14 seed Lipscomb in the first round, so is Lipscomb one of the 2025 March Madness Cinderellas you should target in your March Madness pool picks?
Kentucky is another No. 3 seed dealing with a key absence, as Jaxson Robinson suffered a season-ending wrist injury and Lamont Butler has been dealing with a lingering shoulder injury. Wildcats head coach Mark Pope has never won an NCAA Tournament game as a head coach, so should you target Kentucky with your 2025 March Madness upset picks? Before you make your 2025 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida, and No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin last year. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past six tournaments.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run last year. It nailed 13 teams in the Sweet 16 and was all over Alabama’s Cinderella run to the Final Four as a 4-seed.
Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2025 March Madness bracket 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2025 March Madness bracket upset picks
One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 13 Yale beats No. 4 Texas A&M, a team that ranked as high as No. 7 in the AP Poll this year. The Aggies rely heavily on their offensive rebounding, as they rank outside the top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency and struggle from beyond the arc. Those are difficult metrics to overcome in the NCAA Tournament, despite having a strong defense.
Yale pulled off a first-round upset over Auburn last season, and it is coming off another Ivy League regular-season title. Bez Mbeng was named Ivy League Player of the Year, while veteran guard John Poulakidas averages nearly 20 points per game. Nick Townsend (15.4 pgg) is also averaging double digits, so the Bulldogs have plenty of firepower and experience to pull off this upset.
Another South Region surprise the model has identified: Creighton beats Louisville in the all-important 8-9 matchup. The Bluejays are playing in their fifth straight NCAA Tournament and have made the second week in three of their last four trips. Creighton features a pair of fifth-year seniors in center Ryan Kalkbrenner and guard Steven Ashworth from last year’s starting lineup in one of the top veteran duos in college basketball. Kalkbrenner averaged 19.4 points and 8.8 rebounds with Ashworth averaging 16.3 points and 6.8 assists per game this season. Kalkbrenner is a four-year starter for Creighton with ample NCAA Tournament experience.
Meanwhile, Louisville is playing in its first NCAA Tournament since 2019, and although the Cardinals entered last week ranked No. 13 in the nation and made the ACC Championship Game, they struggled against ranked opponents all season. The ACC wasn’t as dominant this year with only three teams safely in the Round of 64 with North Carolina playing in the First Four. Creighton had three wins over ranked teams, including defeating a No. 1 Kansas squad at the time, and is a No. 9 seed to watch in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. See which other 2025 March Madness matchups to target here.
How to make 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2025 NCAA bracket picks.
So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a team that’s only ever won a single tournament game, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.
