Southern housing markets have dominated growth lists over the last few years, and a report by CoreLogic today shows Southern markets are still hot. Using growth indicators that measure upcoming construction and development, southern metros take eight spots in the top 10 list.
The top three metros are Lakeland, Florida., Austin, Texas, and Raleigh, North Carolina. Dallas, Texas is fourth, followed by Port St. Lucie, Florida, San Antonio, Wilmington, North Carolina and Cape Coral, Florida. at the top of their list. The two non-southern housing markets in the top 10 were Boise City, Idaho at nine and Las Vegas at 10.
To measure whether a metro area is on the verge of growth, CoreLogic combines several different indicators that score the share of new construction properties sold within the last two years, the share of new construction built within the last three years, parcels that had a change in their land use designation within the last two years, parcels owned by a builder or developer and parcels with new construction permits issued within the last two years.
Lakeland measured 4.6% in new construction, 7.2% in land use change, 0.8% in builder/developer land, 4% in recent build and 1.1% in recent permits. Combined, Lakeland’s indicators are a few percentage points above Austin’s.
The slowest-growing housing markets, on the other hand, are all over the map. There are five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) each in the Midwest and California, and the Northeast is home to another 10 showing little growth.
The slowest growing housing market on the list is Los Angeles, measured before the devastating wildfires of the last two weeks. Two factors contributed to this ranking: Los Angeles has a very low number of properties with a change in land use designation, which is likely due to stringent local regulations, and Los Angeles is contiguous with the Riverside metro area, which has a much higher composite score and absorbs a lot of LA’s growth. The fires are also projected to slow construction growth as the area starts the rebuilding process.
Places poised for growth but not at the top of the list include Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Madison and Milwaukee Wisconsin, which have all seen recent land use changes. CoreLogic says that new construction and recent builds indicate growth has recently occurred whereas land use change, ownership by a builder or developer and recent new construction in the area are all signs that growth is imminent.
