Two title fights headline UFC 311 on Saturday when the UFC kicks off its 2025 pay-per-view calendar, but the main event underwent a massive transformation just one day before the card. UFC pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev puts his lightweight title on the line against Renato Moicano.
Makhachev was originally scheduled to face former foe Arman Tsarukyan only for Tsarukyan to pull out of the fight on Friday. The UFC scrambled to get a replacement opponent, pulling Moicano from his main card bout with Beneil Dariush up to the main event. Moicano is riding a four-fight winning streak entering the bout but a fight with arguably the best fighter in the world on one day’s notice is a tall task.
The co-main event sees Merab Dvalishvili make the first defense of his bantamweight title against rising star Umar Nurmagomedov. Nurmagomedov, cousin of former UFC lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov and brother of Bellator lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov, is looking to add to his family’s impressive legacy by capturing his first major championship.
With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.
Merab Dvalishvili carries confrontational attitude like a badge of honor before UFC 311: ‘Don’t disrespect me’
Brian Campbell
UFC 311 fight card, odds
- Islam Makhachev (c) -900 vs. Renato Moicano +600, lightweight title
- Umar Nurmagomedov -320 vs. Merab Dvalishvili (c) +250, bantamweight title
- Jiri Prochazka -140 vs. Jamahal Hill +110, light heavyweights
- Jailton Almeida -480 vs. Sergehi Spivac +360, heavyweights
- Reiner de Ridder -115 vs. Kevin Holland -105, middleweights
- Payton Talbott -1200 vs. Raoni Barcelos +750, bantamweights
- Grant Dawson -260 vs. Diego Ferreira +210, lightweights
- Karol Rosa -265 vs. Ailin Perez +215, women’s bantamweights
- Rinya Nakamura -550 vs. Muin Gafurov +400, bantamweights
- Bogdan Guskov -165 vs. Johnny Walker +140, light heavyweights
- Benardo Sopaj -290 vs. Ricky Turcios +235, bantamweights
- Tagir Ulanbekov -350 vs. Clayton Carpenter +275, flyweights
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).
UFC 311 picks, predictions
| Makhachev (c) vs. Moicano | Makhachev | Makhachev | Makhachev | Makhachev | Makhachev |
| Dvalishvili (c) vs. Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov | Dvalishvili |
| Prochazka vs. Hill | Hill | Prochazka | Prochazka | Prochazka | Prochazka |
| Moicano vs. Dariush | Moicano | Moicano | Dariush | Moicano | Moicano |
| Holland vs. De Ridder | De Ridder | Holland | Holland | Holland | De Ridder |
Makhachev vs. Moicano
Brookhouse: All credit to Moicano on stepping up on extremely short notice to face the best pound-for-pound fighter in the game but I simply don’t know what he is supposed to do to beat Makhachev. Moicano doesn’t present the same threat Tsarukyan did and his lack of meaningful striking power means that his inability to outwrestle Makhachev leaves him with no real path to victory. Makhachev can likely win this fight however he decides unless he lands a miracle shot or Makhachev blows out a knee while ragdolling him around.
Mahjouri: Makhachev’s dominance over Charles Oliveira is a great case study for how this new fight will shape out. Oliveira and Moicano are action-oriented Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialists, but Oliveira is more potent in standing and grappling. Moicano doesn’t have the knockout power or offensive wrestling to trouble Makhachev. If “Do Bronx” couldn’t submit Makhachev, I doubt Moicano will. A short-notice fight creates chaos for all parties but I doubt Makhachev struggles much here.
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov
Campbell: Let’s just say what needs to be said: Nurmagomedov is living rent free in the mind of Dvalishvili. The younger cousin of former lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov also happens to be one of the smartest and most technically pure athletes in the UFC today. That’s why he can enter his first title bout as such a sizable betting favorite despite previously only recording a single elite victory (Cory Sandhagen), which has mostly been the fuel for Dvalishvili’s anger surrounding the idea that Nurmagomedov is getting opportunities he hasn’t truly earned. For as great as Dvalishvili is at pushing an ungodly pace and spamming opponents with the threat of a takedown, Nurmagomedov is all kinds of wrong for him as a style contrast. If Dvalishvili proves unable to consistently bring the fight to the ground, it will be up to him to keep his emotions in check enough to get the victory. That might prove difficult considering how easily Nurmagomedov has been able to wind Dvalishvili up. Whether or not the champion likes it, Nurmagomedov is here and he brings with him a P4P pedigree that will prove incredibly difficult to expose. Dvalishvili will likely be there for all 25 minutes, but it remains Nurmagomedov’s fight to lose.
Mahjouri: Dvalishvili has one thing right: Nurmagomedov has not been sufficiently tested by elite bantamweights save for Cory Sandhagen. Dvalishvili has overwhelmed almost every opponent with his endless stamina pool. But I trust the company Nurmagomedov keeps. Training with Makhachev and the Nurmagomedov clan should well prepare Umar for Dvalishvili’s threats. The title challenger should fend off enough takedowns to win rounds with striking. My biggest concern is if Nurmagomedov’s endurance lasts five physically taxing rounds. Again, he has the right team preparing him. I suspect Nurmagomedov’s wider toolset will overcome Dvalishvili’s main strengths.
Prochazka vs. Hill
Campbell: This pair of hard-hitting former champions are undoubtedly going to let their hands go early and often. What it likely comes down to is who can land the big one first. In this case, Hill possesses the better technique and pure boxing skills to be a problem for the unorthodox Prochazka, who has never been one for defense. The unpredictability of not just both fighters but the division at large needs to be considered here, which means any outcome is possible at any given time. But Hill, save for his title knockout loss to Alex Pereira, has proven he can raise his game to a higher level when the lights are the brightest. This one will be a war for as long as it lasts but it’s one that Hill, a slight betting favorite, seems equipped to survive. Get ready for a wild post-fight callout of the champion.
Brookhouse: I don’t know that I believe Hill has shown more than Prochazka in the Octagon. In fact, I would make the case that Prochazka has the better wins of the two. Prochazka’s defense is nonexistent but his willingness to take fire to get in his own shots has served him well and Hill has fought for a total of 3:14 since January 2023, so he’s going to be tying to get his cage legs back far more than Prochazka. It’s a light heavyweight fight between two powerful strikers, so anything can happen. That said, Prochazka’s grit and unwillingness to back down should play well against Hill, who is at his best when he’s leading the dance.
