This latest round of conference realignment has turned into a struggle for College Football Playoff access primacy. The current Mountain West is regarded as the best of the Group of Five conference and its champion would likely earn an automatic CFP bid in most years under the current format.
That was before the Mountain West was raided by the Pac-12 earlier this month. What’s at stake in the future is essentially the fifth automatic bid to the new 12-team College Football Playoff.
The current CFP format will award the top five-ranked conference champions an automatic bid with the four highest-ranked conference champs earning a first-round bye. Most years, those byes will go to the champions of the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12.
The reinvention of the Pac-12 has made it a mad scramble for that fifth spot because no one below it is guaranteed anything.
That’s not to say the other Group of Five conferences will be excluded from the CFP. There are, after all, seven at-large bids. But the Big Ten and SEC are expected to overwhelmingly dominate access to those 12 spots annually in the playoff based on previous seasons, according to CBS Sports research.
CBS Sports plugged in the teams over the past 10 years as if a 12-team bracket had been in place. An average of 7.73 teams each season combined would have come from the Big Ten and SEC.
That essentially leaves four spots for around 100 remaining FBS schools after the Big Ten and SEC get their share.
Following last week’s raid of the Mountain West, the new Pac-12 and American Athletic Conference are basically at a standoff in realignment to see who comes out as the fifth league champion to receive a berth to the CFP each season.
At this point, it’s Advantage: Pac-12. Schools targeted by the Pac-12 were recently shown a slide deck that spelled the advantages of the league that grew to six with the addition of Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Boise State beginning in 2026.
For now, those four programs represent the four best football brands available to join Oregon State and Washington State in the Pac-12. The league plans to not only capitalize on its history and logo, but also a trove of technology residing in storage in San Ramon, Calif.
It is there laying the remnants of the Pac-12 Network. For one school lured to the Pac-12, what has been called “Pac-12 Enterprises” was the major selling point.
That is the broadcast production arm of the league. Yes, the league shrunk to two teams but all the tech from the old Pac-12 could be used to produce games and cut costs in a future media rights deal.
What we know about realignment right now
- There was chatter over the weekend that the Mountain West was urging its members to sign a grant of rights. CBS Sports could not confirm that information, and there was skepticism about such a move among industry sources because the current Mountain West contract runs out July 1, 2026. Given that, sources questioned the point of signing a grant of rights for 21 months.
“If I were a school in the league I wouldn’t sign it,” said one of those industry sources. “They don’t need a grant of rights right now. I wouldn’t sign a grant of rights until I know who is going to be in the league.”
In case you’ve forgotten, a grant of rights binds a school’s TV rights to a contract for the term of a media rights deal. It’s that GOR that Florida State and Clemson have attacked in trying to get out of the ACC. Here is the genesis of the ACC GOR that was borrowed from the Big 12.
- Memphis and Tulane are weighing their options of joining the Pac-12 or remaining in the American. Depending on who AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti can acquire, staying in their current conference might be the best option for the Tigers and/or the Green Wave.
Pernetti is known to desire UNLV and Air Force from what’s left of the Mountain West. If the Falcons and Rebels jump to the AAC instead of the Pac-12 then all the sudden the AAC might look more desirable for Memphis and Tulane to stay put.
Both Memphis and Tulane are desired by the Pac-12 for their consistency and recent success in football. Both are essentially top 50 TV markets, but Memphis brings a record of success in basketball and Tulane is attractive because it’s in New Orleans. (Don’t think that presidents and ADs haven’t thought about fun weekends in N’awlins while watching their teams play.)
- The amount of media revenue being mentioned for Pac-12 schools is $10 million to $15 million per year. Those media rights numbers have to be considered preliminary because the Pac-12 doesn’t have a TV deal yet.
The amount of possible revenue is more than the $4 million to $5 million Mountain West schools receive and about on par with what schools receive in the American.
There was talk over the summer of merging the Mountain West and American, to create a Group of Five “superconference.” That would solidify CFP access for teams in those conferences and shore up their place in FBS.
The idea was similar to one floated by former Boise State senior associate AD Michael Walsh last year.
- If the Mountain West stays together it would have to add members from the bottom of FBS (New Mexico State, UTEP) and possibly upper tiers of FCS (Montana, Montana State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, South Dakota). The Power Four conferences can’t be pleased if FBS (currently with 134 schools) continues to grow.
Last year the NCAA changed the membership fee to move up from FCS to FBS from $5,000 to $5 million. Schools must sponsor 90% of the allowed scholarships in a minimum of 16 sports. The Power Four continue to call for their own governance aside from the rest of FBS.
CBS Sports was able to confirm UTEP and New Mexico State have not been contacted by the Mountain West as of Saturday.
FCS schools considering moving up to the FBS have a huge decision to make – Should they compete for championships in FCS or struggle against mighty odds to snag one of the 12 CFP spots available in FBS.
- Teams in the American are being told not to act too hastily and that they should consider the future of the ACC before making a decision.
If the ACC is altered by the loss of Florida State and Clemson, it is going to be looking for replacements. The latest news seems to indicate FSU and Clemson will settle for a weighted share of the media rights rather than continue to engage legally.
- One Mountain West source said a conference containing 10 Pac-12 teams “is probably realistic.” That would give the Pac-12 an opportunity to create more premium inventory for its media partners. In a true round-robin football schedule with 10 teams, the new Pac-12 would be playing nine conference games.
We told you last week why eight Pac-12 conference games would not be ideal.
- UNLV is valued by three conferences – the Mountain West (where it currently resides), the Pac-12 and the American.
However, travel must be weighed in any UNLV decision. Six of the American’s teams are located in the East making travel for conference games expensive for schools and time-consuming for players.
You might be able to make the same amount of money [in the American]. But now you’re talking about additional travel,” UNLV AD Erick Harper said. “If you make the same amount or a little bit more, how much of that would be eaten up in travel? In some cases you’re going to have to have an extra night in a hotel.”
- The Mountain West is using Endeavor as its media consultant. Among its vast number of college clients is the Big 12. Most recently Endeavor helped the conference in its expansion to the “Four Corners” schools – Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah.
A guess of where teams will be
As things stand now, this is one guess for what the American, Pac-12 and Mountain West will look like beginning in 2026.
Pac-12
- Oregon State
- Washington State
- Boise State
- Fresno State
- San Diego State
- Colorado State
- UNLV
- Utah State
- Tulane
- Memphis
American Athletic Conference
Mountain West
If it stays together
